From last week (June 22, Market Update - Decision Point?):
- Many 200-day EMAs that are flat or nearly flat, if the market cannot turn these back to "UP" in short-order then I expect more downtrends showing up soon (it's just how the math works out).
UPDATE: All of the stock indices now have downward sloping 200 day Exponential Moving Averages (first table below). Only QQQQ and IWM still have upward sloping 200-day simple moving averages.
Conclusion: Confirmation of the downtrend for stocks. - Exactly 50% of stocks are above their 200-day simple moving average... a tipping point of sorts.
UPDATE: Now only 40% are above the 200-day SMA.
Conclusion: It has tipped in the direction of the bears. - Although the 20-day SMA is upward sloping, there are nearly identical numbers of 20-day highs and 20-day lows. I interpret this as a bearish divergence.
UPDATE: Currently New Lows are lambasting New Highs, but for a better comparison I will wait until the next rally. - The market is no longer oversold so bulls can't rely on that 'fuel tank' to propel the market higher.
UPDATE: T2108 and the % of stocks above the 20-day SMA are approaching oversold conditions, but there is still room for this downtrend to slide before we get to the levels seen in May (May 20, Market Update - Still More Oversold!). At that time the % above 20-d SMA fell to just 7% (vs. 21% today) and there were 822 moderately oversold stocks (vs. 465 today).
Conclusion: still too soon to count on the oversold bounce (although a contrarian speculator I follow is buying here).
Nothing but downgrades for stocks. Bonds and gold remain in uptrends on all time-frames.
| Trend Direction by Broad Index 29-Jun-2010 vs. 15-Jun-2010 | ||||
| Index | Slope of 20-day SMA | Slope of 50-day SMA | Slope of 200-day SMA | Slope of 200-day EMA |
| QQQQ Nasdaq | DOWN (flat) | DOWN (flat) | UP (up) | DOWN (up) |
| SPY S&P500 | DOWN (flat) | DOWN (down) | FLAT (up) | DOWN (up) |
| IWM Russell 2000 | DOWN (flat) | DOWN (flat) | UP (up) | DOWN (up) |
| EWC Canada | DOWN (up) | DOWN (flat) | FLAT (up) | DOWN (up) |
| EFA MSCI EAFE | DOWN (up) | DOWN (flat) | DOWN (down) | DOWN (down) |
| FXI China | UP (up) | DOWN (flat) | DOWN (flat) | DOWN (up) |
| GLD Gold | UP (up) | UP (up) | UP (up) | UP (up) |
| UUP US Dollar | DOWN (down) | UP (up) | UP (up) | UP (up) |
| TLT US Long Bonds | UP (up) | UP (up) | UP (up) | UP (up) |
| Numbers in parentheses are from 10 trading-days ago SMA = Simple Moving Average, EMA = Exponential Moving Average | ||||
Lows outnumbering highs by a landslide. Note how the 52-week highs vs. lows has deteriorated over the last month. On May 14th while the % of stocks over the 20-day SMA was only 27% (similar to today) the number of 52 week Highs was 23 vs. 31 Lows. No comparison. By the way, don't put much stock in the All-Time Highs vs Lows number because they include funds (so inverse ETFs and bond funds can appear in the lists... I need to improve my program so it filters these out and only includes stocks).
| US Stocks Making New Highs and Lows 29-Jun-2010 | ||||
| Period | New Highs | New Lows | Hi vs Lo | Hi/Lo Ratio |
| 20 day1 | 53 | 1446 |  | 0.0 |
| 50 day1 | 27 | 1066 |  | 0.0 |
| 52 week1 | 16 | 259 |  | 0.1 |
| All-Time2 | 53 | 32 |  | 1.7 |
| 1 Out of 5096 US Stocks on FINVIZ 2 From uglychart.com based on the previous close (includes funds) | ||||
| US Stocks in Overbought and Oversold Conditions 29-Jun-2010 | ||||
| Level | Overbought | Oversold | Overbought vs Oversold | OB/OS Ratio |
| Mild RSI(14)=60 vs 40 | 150 | 2379 | | 0.1 |
| Moderate RSI(14)=70 vs 30 | 32 | 465 | | 0.1 |
| Extreme RSI(14)=80 vs 20 | 5 | 37 |  | 0.1 |
| Ridiculous RSI(14)=90 vs 10 | 0 | 2 |  | 0.0 |
| 1 Out of 5096 US Stocks on FINVIZ | ||||
Generally waiting until the % above SMA 20 and T2108 fall below 20% is best before attempting any counter-trend plays.
| US Stocks in Relation to their Moving Averages 29-Jun-2010 | ||
 |  |  |
Worden's T2108 on 29-Jun-2010 = 25.7 
| ||
Anywhere to hide? Not really. Maybe Real estate or utilities. But every sector saw downgrades compared to 10 trading days ago.
| Trend Direction by Sector 29-Jun-2010 vs. 15-Jun-2010 | ||||
| Index | Slope of 20-day SMA | Slope of 50-day SMA | Slope of 200-day SMA | Slope of 200-day EMA |
| XLY Consumer Discretionary | DOWN (flat) | DOWN (flat) | UP (up) | DOWN (up) |
| XLP Consumer Staples | DOWN (flat) | DOWN (flat) | DOWN (up) | DOWN (flat) |
| XLE Energy | DOWN (flat) | DOWN (flat) | DOWN (up) | DOWN (flat) |
| XLF Financial Services | DOWN (flat) | DOWN (down) | DOWN (flat) | DOWN (flat) |
| XLV Health Care | DOWN (flat) | DOWN (down) | DOWN (up) | DOWN (flat) |
| XLI Industrial | DOWN (flat) | DOWN (flat) | UP (up) | DOWN (up) |
| RWR US Real Estate | DOWN (up) | DOWN (up) | UP (up) | UP (up) |
| RWX Intl Real Estate | UP (up) | DOWN (flat) | DOWN (flat) | DOWN (flat) |
| XLK Technology | DOWN (flat) | DOWN (flat) | DOWN (up) | DOWN (up) |
| IYZ Telecom | DOWN (flat) | DOWN (flat) | FLAT (up) | FLAT (up) |
| XLU Utilities | UP (flat) | DOWN (flat) | DOWN (up) | DOWN (up) |
| Trend in parentheses is from 10 trading-days ago SMA = Simple Moving Average, EMA = Exponential Moving Average | ||||
As I've said for a while now, it's time to be cautious and selective. Tighten stops on the winners (hello NRGP, EW). I'm sticking to my trailing stops and guppy-chart signals with existing longs but haven't initiated any new longs. Bonds have done well but I focus the blog discussion on stocks.
Related Posts:
- Leading stocks falter
- Market Update - decision point?
- Market Update - weak and oversold
- US All-Time High Stock List for last week
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