New lows are outnumbering new highs, but there are still a decent number of new highs compared to the update on June 7th. I interpret that to mean the market is far from washed out. How likely is a trend reversal to the upside? Well I don't see many extremely oversold stocks, and the % of stocks above the 20-day SMA or T2108 are not at extremely low levels. Thus stocks could drift lower for a while. Despite the rallies in the past weeks, just 36% of US listed stocks are above their 200-day moving average (yikes!). This means about 2 out of 3 stocks have 'technically' bearish charts.
I do this update to maintain an objective sense for what the broad market is doing, because no stock can exist in a vacuum. Ultimately greed and fear grips the majority of investors and speculators and the effects can be far-reaching. However, at the end of the day I am primarily interested in the action of individual stocks and taking disciplined action when they provide buying or selling signals.
| Trend Direction by Broad Index 23-Aug-2010 (06-Aug-2010) | ||||
| Index | Slope of 20-day SMA | Slope of 50-day SMA | Slope of 200-day SMA | Slope of 200-day EMA |
| QQQQ Nasdaq | DOWN (up) | DOWN (up) | UP (up) | FLAT (up) |
| SPY S&P500 | DOWN (up) | DOWN (up) | UP (up) | DOWN (up) |
| IWM Russell 2000 | DOWN (up) | DOWN (up) | UP (up) | DOWN (up) |
| EWC Canada | DOWN (up) | DOWN (up) | UP (up) | FLAT (up) |
| EFA MSCI EAFE | DOWN (up) | UP (up) | DOWN (flat) | DOWN (up) |
| FXI China | DOWN (up) | UP (up) | DOWN (flat) | FLAT (up) |
| GLD Gold | UP (flat) | FLAT (flat) | UP (up) | UP (up) |
| UUP US Dollar | UP (down) | DOWN (down) | UP (down) | FLAT (down) |
| TLT US Long Bonds | UP (up) | UP (up) | UP (up) | UP (up) |
| Numbers in parentheses are from 10 trading-days ago SMA = Simple Moving Average, EMA = Exponential Moving Average | ||||
| US Stocks Making New Highs and Lows 23-Aug-2010 | ||||
| Period | New Highs | New Lows | Hi vs Lo | Hi/Lo Ratio |
| 20 day1 | 174 | 919 |  | 0.2 |
| 50 day1 | 128 | 463 |  | 0.3 |
| 52 week1 | 71 | 193 |  | 0.4 |
| All-Time stocks only2 | 86 | 69 |  | 1.2 |
| 1 Out of 5090 US Stocks on FINVIZ 2 From uglychart.com based on the previous close (funds removed) | ||||
| US Stocks in Overbought and Oversold Conditions 23-Aug-2010 | ||||
| Level | Overbought | Oversold | Overbought vs Oversold | OB/OS Ratio |
| Mild RSI(14)=60 vs 40 | 367 | 1865 | | 0.2 |
| Moderate RSI(14)=70 vs 30 | 84 | 369 |  | 0.2 |
| Extreme RSI(14)=80 vs 20 | 15 | 38 |  | 0.4 |
| Ridiculous RSI(14)=90 vs 10 | 3 | 3 |  | 1.0 |
| 1 Out of 5090 US Stocks on FINVIZ | ||||
| US Stocks in Relation to their Moving Averages 23-Aug-2010 | ||
 |  |  |
Worden's T2108 on 23-Aug-2010 = 46.8 
| ||
| Trend Direction by Sector 23-Aug-2010 (09-Aug-2010) | ||||
| Index | Slope of 20-day SMA | Slope of 50-day SMA | Slope of 200-day SMA | Slope of 200-day EMA |
| XLY Consumer Discretionary | DOWN (up) | DOWN (flat) | UP (up) | FLAT (up) |
| XLP Consumer Staples | DOWN (up) | UP (up) | UP (up) | FLAT (up) |
| XLE Energy | DOWN (up) | DOWN (up) | DOWN (flat) | DOWN (up) |
| XLF Financial Services | DOWN (up) | DOWN (flat) | DOWN (flat) | DOWN (flat) |
| XLV Health Care | DOWN (up) | DOWN (up) | DOWN (up) | DOWN (flat) |
| XLI Industrial | DOWN (up) | DOWN (up) | UP (up) | FLAT (up) |
| RWR US Real Estate | DOWN (up) | UP (up) | UP (up) | UP (up) |
| RWX Intl Real Estate | DOWN (up) | UP (up) | FLAT (flat) | UP (up) |
| XLK Technology | DOWN (up) | DOWN (up) | FLAT (up) | FLAT (up) |
| IYZ Telecom | DOWN (up) | UP (up) | UP (up) | UP (up) |
| XLU Utilities | FLAT (up) | UP (up) | UP (up) | UP (up) |
| Trend in parentheses is from 10 trading-days ago SMA = Simple Moving Average, EMA = Exponential Moving Average | ||||
Related Posts:
- Market Update (July 29, 2010)
- Explaining why all-time highs outperform
- Learning from the Past: Trend-trading Potash Corp 2006-2008
No comments:
Post a Comment