Market update

I think this market update can be summed up as "mixed." For stocks there aren't many clear trends and the likelihood of a sharp reversal is moderate since US stocks aren't particularly overbought or oversold. The only uptrend on all timeframes is in the defensive US treasuries. Two other points worth noting are that despite the big bounce last week, most indices have downward-sloping 20-day moving averages and the percent of stocks above their 200-day moving average is only 42%, which means there are a lot of bearish charts. On the bullish side, the Chinese and International indices (FXI and EFA) are both sloping upwards on the 20-day timeframe.

Trend Direction by Broad Index 24-Jun-2010 (09-Jul-2010)
Index	Slope of 20-day SMA	Slope of 50-day SMA	Slope of 200-day SMA	Slope of 200-day EMA
QQQQ Nasdaq	DOWN (up)	DOWN (down)	UP (up)	FLAT (up)
SPY S&P500	DOWN (up)	DOWN (down)	UP (up)	DOWN (down)
IWM Russell 2000	DOWN (down)	DOWN (down)	UP (up)	FLAT (flat)
EWC Canada	DOWN (up)	DOWN (down)	FLAT (up)	FLAT (flat)
EFA MSCI EAFE	UP (up)	DOWN (down)	DOWN (down)	DOWN (down)
FXI China	UP (up)	FLAT (flat)	DOWN (flat)	UP (up)
GLD Gold	DOWN (up)	UP (up)	UP (up)	UP (up)
UUP US Dollar	DOWN (down)	UP (up)	UP (up)	FLAT (up)
TLT US Long Bonds	UP (up)	UP (up)	UP (up)	UP (up)
Numbers in parentheses are from 10 trading-days ago  SMA = Simple Moving Average, EMA = Exponential Moving Average

US Stocks Making New Highs and Lows 12-Jul-2010
Period	New Highs	New Lows	Hi vs Lo	Hi/Lo Ratio
20 day1	307	183		1.7
50 day1	116	130		0.9
52 week1	74	59		1.3
All-Time2	66	30		2.2
1 Out of 5103 US Stocks on FINVIZ  2 From uglychart.com based on the previous close (includes funds)

US Stocks in Overbought and Oversold Conditions 12-Jul-2010
Level	Overbought	Oversold	Overbought vs Oversold	OB/OS Ratio
Mild RSI(14)=60 vs 40	350	1267		0.3
Moderate RSI(14)=70 vs 30	54	219		0.2
Extreme RSI(14)=80 vs 20	12	20		0.6
Ridiculous RSI(14)=90 vs 10	2	3		0.7
1 Out of 5103 US Stocks on FINVIZ

US Stocks in Relation to their Moving Averages 12-Jul-2010
Worden's T2108 on 12-Jul-2010 = 52.2

Trend Direction by Sector 24-Jun-2010 (09-Jul-2010)
Index	Slope of 20-day SMA	Slope of 50-day SMA	Slope of 200-day SMA	Slope of 200-day EMA
XLY Consumer Discretionary	DOWN (down)	DOWN (down)	UP (up)	FLAT (flat)
XLP Consumer Staples	FLAT (up)	FLAT (down)	UP (up)	FLAT (flat)
XLE Energy	FLAT (up)	DOWN (down)	DOWN (down)	DOWN (down)
XLF Financial Services	FLAT (down)	DOWN (down)	FLAT (down)	FLAT (down)
XLV Health Care	UP (up)	DOWN (down)	DOWN (down)	DOWN (down)
XLI Industrial	FLAT (down)	DOWN (down)	UP (up)	FLAT (flat)
RWR US Real Estate	FLAT (up)	DOWN (down)	UP (up)	UP (up)
RWX Intl Real Estate	UP (up)	FLAT (down)	FLAT (down)	FLAT (down)
XLK Technology	FLAT (up)	DOWN (down)	FLAT (up)	FLAT (flat)
IYZ Telecom	FLAT (up)	FLAT (down)	UP (up)	FLAT (flat)
XLU Utilities	UP (up)	FLAT (down)	FLAT (flat)	UP (flat)
Trend in parentheses is from 10 trading-days ago  SMA = Simple Moving Average, EMA = Exponential Moving Average

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