Market update

Long bonds and utilities are the only areas with uptrends on all time frames. Gold and the US dollar turned downward on the 20 and 50-day timeframes, which is a noteworthy change and reinforces that this continues to be a market fraught with indecision. On the highs vs. lows front it is interesting to see new highs outnumbering lows on several timeframes; however, Finviz (the data source) counts intraday highs so this may inflate the numbers a bit. I should point out that I revised my program so that it filters out funds like inverse funds and bond funds (as best I can) from the uglychart.com list of today's all-time highs and lows. The stocks-only comparison paints a significantly gloomier picture. There are less stocks above their 200-day moving average and we aren't oversold by any means so there is room to continue the downtrend before a reversal rally. However, who knows what happens next. Not me. But it's pretty clear that the primary trends are down.

Trend Direction by Broad Index 20-Jul-2010 (06-Jul-2010)
Index	Slope of 20-day SMA	Slope of 50-day SMA	Slope of 200-day SMA	Slope of 200-day EMA
QQQQ Nasdaq	DOWN (down)	FLAT (down)	UP (down)	UP (down)
SPY S&P500	DOWN (down)	DOWN (down)	UP (down)	DOWN (down)
IWM Russell 2000	DOWN (down)	DOWN (down)	UP (down)	DOWN (down)
EWC Canada	DOWN (down)	DOWN (down)	UP (down)	FLAT (down)
EFA MSCI EAFE	DOWN (up)	DOWN (down)	DOWN (down)	DOWN (down)
FXI China	DOWN (up)	UP (flat)	UP (flat)	FLAT (flat)
GLD Gold	DOWN (down)	DOWN (up)	UP (up)	UP (up)
UUP US Dollar	DOWN (down)	DOWN (up)	UP (up)	FLAT (flat)
TLT US Long Bonds	UP (up)	UP (up)	UP (up)	UP (up)
Numbers in parentheses are from 10 trading-days ago  SMA = Simple Moving Average, EMA = Exponential Moving Average

US Stocks Making New Highs and Lows 21-Jul-2010
Period	New Highs	New Lows	Hi vs Lo	Hi/Lo Ratio
20 day1	411	289		1.4
50 day1	203	223		0.9
52 week1	100	71		1.4
All-Time stocks only2	12	25		0.5
All-Time incl. funds3	88	27		3.3
1 Out of 5102 US Stocks on FINVIZ  2 From uglychart.com based on the previous close (funds removed)    3From uglychart.com based on the previous close

US Stocks in Overbought and Oversold Conditions 21-Jul-2010
Level	Overbought	Oversold	Overbought vs Oversold	OB/OS Ratio
Mild RSI(14)=60 vs 40	433	1026		0.4
Moderate RSI(14)=70 vs 30	106	170		0.6
Extreme RSI(14)=80 vs 20	25	15		1.7
Ridiculous RSI(14)=90 vs 10	2	2		1.0
1 Out of 5102 US Stocks on FINVIZ

US Stocks in Relation to their Moving Averages 21-Jul-2010
Worden's T2108 on 21-Jul-2010 = 51.58

Trend Direction by Sector 21-Jul-2010 (07-Jul-2010)
Index	Slope of 20-day SMA	Slope of 50-day SMA	Slope of 200-day SMA	Slope of 200-day EMA
XLY Consumer Discretionary	DOWN (down)	DOWN (down)	UP (up)	FLAT (flat)
XLP Consumer Staples	UP (flat)	FLAT (down)	UP (up)	FLAT (flat)
XLE Energy	FLAT (down)	DOWN (down)	DOWN (down)	DOWN (down)
XLF Financial Services	DOWN (flat)	DOWN (down)	DOWN (down)	DOWN (down)
XLV Health Care	DOWN (up)	DOWN (down)	DOWN (down)	DOWN (down)
XLI Industrial	FLAT (up)	DOWN (down)	UP (up)	FLAT (down)
RWR US Real Estate	FLAT (down)	FLAT (down)	UP (up)	UP (down)
RWX Intl Real Estate	UP (up)	UP (down)	FLAT (down)	UP (down)
XLK Technology	FLAT (down)	DOWN (down)	UP (flat)	FLAT (flat)
IYZ Telecom	FLAT (down)	UP (down)	UP (flat)	UP (flat)
XLU Utilities	UP (up)	UP (flat)	UP (flat)	UP (flat)
Trend in parentheses is from 10 trading-days ago  SMA = Simple Moving Average, EMA = Exponential Moving Average

Related Posts:

• Last week's market update