Thursday, June 24, 2010

Island Top for AAPL?

Sometimes a chart pattern just jumps off the page. Like the current partially-formed Island-top in Apple. First, for comparison, take a look at the "idealized" version of an island top pattern from the Trending 123 website:
And here is the current daily chart of AAPL. Note the similarity? This formation suggests the probability of an intermediate-term top if the stock can't stay above the top of the box I've drawn on the chart around $268 to $270. Below $270 a gap-fill and downtrend is likely. If that happens it would be a failed breakout from AAPL's previous all-time high and leave an ominous looking chart. This is all a familiar repeat of what happened with the island top that formed after AAPL's April 21st gap up. It isn't healthy for an already fragile market to have a leading stock like AAPL struggling so frequently.


On the other hand, having said all that, the trend for AAPL is still up on the 50 and 200-day time frames, its guppy chart looks decent, and it hasn't closed below my trailing stop.


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