Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Currency complicates all-time high status for cross-listed stocks

Stocks near all-time highs are unique because they have no overhead resistance. That is, everyone who owns the stock is showing a profit. This can provide buoyancy to the stock price from a technical analysis perspective. Ideally, stocks making all-time highs also have accelerating growth of the business, which is good from the perspective of fundamental analysis. I want to focus here on how the concept of overhead resistance can be complicated when a stock is listed on two exchanges and denominated in different currencies.

Open Text Corporation was highlighted on the blog last week when OTEX made an all-time high on the NASDAQ. Here's the interesting part: Open Text is also listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol OTC, but that ticker is not trading at an all-time high and the chart has ample overhead resistance. The main reason for this discrepancy is the changes in the USD:CAD exchange rate.

OTEX on the NASDAQ: Very little overhead resistance.


OTC on the TSX: Lots of overhead resistance between $43 and $44.50.


Clearly these charts are very different from a technical analysis standpoint, yet they represent the same company. Traders and investors holding  OTEX are mostly showing a profit (in nominal terms), whereas some Canadian traders holding OTC are showing a loss (in nominal terms). How does technical analysis apply in a case like this?